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OddsXray · The Board Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Section

Geopolitics

Live implied probabilities across 15 geopolitics markets — the real odds behind each, read plainly and updated through the day.

The Ledger

Table 1 · Live implied probability · n = 15 markets · Polymarket · July 29, 2026
MarketProb24hVol
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?7%▼ 49$1.1M
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?18%▼ 41$459K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?10%▼ 4$373K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24%▲ 3$252K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?88%▼ 6$188K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?20%▼ 6$152K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?10%—$143K
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?6%▲ 3$141K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?5%▼ 8$116K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?54%▼ 3$106K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?2%▼ 2$106K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?20%▲ 2$91K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?6%—$89K
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?4%▼ 2$87K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?30%▼ 2$77K

Prob is the market’s public mid-price at the last update, read plainly. 24h is the move in implied probability, in points. Vol is lifetime notional on Polymarket.

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